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What's next for the 60D (next August)
A current candidate feature set for the 60D (based on a 12 month release schedule) includes:
* Improved Live View AF supporting focus tracking
* Movable LCD Back (not definite, but easy to do) including a flip up mode to allow ‘from the hip’ shooting
* HD movie mode, with AF and stereo sound.
* GPS Terminal
* Improved normal AF (additional AF points)
* Upgraded 50D firmware with additional exposure and image processing options such as Chromatic Aberration adjustment, and even more flexible Auto ISO
* Same 15MP Sensor
The 12 month release not absolutely certain yet but is likely, given the expected aggressive Nikon and Sony product cycles.
The 70D would be Digic V and feature a higher MP sensor, more upgrades to image processing algorithms plus whatever whistles and bells development can come up with (inbuilt WiFi, remote control etc.)
Canon feel they can comfortably do a 18MP or even 21MP sensor (53MP FF equiv) for the 60D if needed based on market pressures. Currently, this is not expected for the next update.
Future sensors... 3 or 4 years out.
Even with pixel binning Canon believe there is a point where more MP don’t make sense as they pixels are starting to get small relative to the wavelengths of light etc. creating all sorts of undesirable effects.
They expect to max out in the 50-65MP for a FF camera and a 21 to 25 MP range for crop. The market is likely to push them more to the upper end of the range and their DIGIC planning is on track to deliver the data and image processing rates.
In a few generations of camera, expect a 24-25MP 1.6 crop giving 12MP and 6MP pixel binned images. While the 64/65MP FF at the same pixel density can offer 32, 16 and 8MP pixel binned images as well as dynamic cropping to 1.3 etc.
After this effective ending of the MP race, Canon sees plenty of room for development in improved sensor technology and imagine processing algorithms.
Beyond the 1D... Did I hear EVF?
Canon acknowledges the need to push many more pro-style features into the next range down. This is directly based on Nikon's moves with the D300 and D700.
This has encouraged Canon to begin a ground up re-think of just what else a professional camera needs to differentiate itself (other than rugged build etc.) as 'professional'
There are a number of Canon experimental bodies with separate electronic viewfinders (EVF) using high resolution screens (much higher than the current ones in the new cameras)
These screens are movable to be viewable from the top or back (like medium format). The cameras also support dynamic crop modes, with the electronic viewfinder adjusting accordingly. This includes both 1.3 from FF plus 4:3 and 6:4.5
The bodies are also a significant redesign from the current 1D series form factor.
Other potential professional series goodies/essentials/needless frippery are, full two way remote control (all major camera functions such as ISO and metering) and built-in WiFi and GPS (built in - integrated). There is still interest in slide in/out mini hard drives (solid state or moving) to give several hundred GB storage.
Feedback from Canon's tame 'professionals' has been generally very positive towards the features ;-)
The market shifts
Canon keeps a eye on the both the growth in the DLSR market share and relative market shares in specific segments.
A key observation that has caught Canon’s attention is the shift over the last 12 months in two key 'pro'/'semi-pro' segments which are relatively fixed in size now (most professional photographers are already on DSLRs)
1 Wedding / Family / Interior Photographers.
* Many of these have a pair XXD or XD cameras and 2 or 3 core lenses. Generally the 24-70 F2.8 L, 70-700 L (any variant) and sometimes one other Prime or wide-zoom.
* These pros will generally update one of their bodies every year or so keeping a body for 2 or 3 years based on shutter life.
* Canon have seen sales of the D3 and 24-70 and 14-24 (and more recently the D300) eat into this market, as the changeover cost is not too high. Some pros are experimenting with two different systems (keeping one lens on each main camera), while others have switched.
* The Nikon D300 has added to this and, while early days, the Nikon D700 is expected to as well.
* Canon's view is that this based on clever marketing and feature targeting by Nikon with the pro-features in the lower cost model and new high quality 24-70 and 14-24 lenses.
* Canon see an exposure still for Nikon in their aging 70-200 F2.8 However, the replacement Nikon 70-200 is being trialled at the moment by Nikon.
The Canon response
The 5D replacement is a very targeted countermeasure aimed at the D700 and inspirational D3 sales. Canon have gone for MP, low ISO, lots of pro features and some additional 'whistle and bells' here to retain and attract the market.
The 5D replacement is also designed to be an easy step up for current XXD owners, preserving lens investments etc.
The 50D targeted as a low cost D300 competitor
Canon have a second FF coming too to further cover this market.
In terms of lenses the 24-70 F2.8 L IS is ready and work is under way on a 14-24 competitor (with 12-24 and filters being the target)
2 Sports / Press Photographers
* While some professionals have large lens and system investments, there are a significant proportion of press and specialist sports photographers who (like the first group) only use a small subset of lenses.
* The D3 and some of the longer Nikon glass (like the 200-400) as seen as being strong competitors here. Canon has had some serious repercussions from the bad press / sentiment over the 1D III focus issue.
* The move from Canon hasn't been a flood but there have been a number of magazines / newspapers that have swapped systems in the last 12 months as part of their replacement program.
* The lens values have made this easy, since many of these photographers would have an average of 2 or 3 lenses and a couple of cameras.
The Canon response
Bringing forward the upgrades of the 1D series by a market surprising amount.
Major redesign of the Autofocus system for their next pro series cameras (ongoing)
Design work on a rethink of the whole pro series body and features while still keeping a sports focus and a studio focus in terms of market.
Lenses
Canon have been working on a number of parallel paths for lens design:
* Competitive consumer grade EF-S lenses with IS – the release of the 18-200 IS after last year’s 18-55 and 55-200 are felt to provide good coverage in the XXXD and entry XXD markets.
* Replacing core primes and zooms with higher resolution lenses more suitable for the newer 50-65MP FF sensors that are coming over the next few years. This includes the 24L, 35L, 16-35L (done) and 100-400L, 200 L (done) and over time several of the longer Ls
* Upgrading IS in all lenses to current 4 stop designs while they do the lenses.
* They are also looking at a couple to match specific Nikon / Sigma lenses (think 14-24 and 200-400 2.8 style)
Canon have upped their new lens design capability from 2 to 3 a year (this is significant in the amount of resources required) and are looking at 4 as a peak over the next few years.
No surprise with the long awaited 24-70 IS F2.8 (Canon acknowledged that the current one was showing its limitation on the 1Ds III. Though many will be surprised with the new 35L and 24L.)
Canon do not currently have many plans for the non L series primes, with most consumers in that market going for zooms or aspiring to a L series zoom. Given the need to do so much with the rest of the lens range over the next 3-4 years, don't hold your breath waiting for a a new 50/1.4 or the like.
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