5D i co dalej... ?

[gietrzy]

* Canon obviously takes all those surveys it commisions seriously. Despite what you may see on various gear related forums, the mythical 'prosumer' customer bases a lot of their decisions on ISO range, frames per second and, you've guessed it, megapixels. The 10MP 40D was seen as markedly inferior to the D300, despite the hefty price difference. Thus the big increase in MP and ISO for the 50D.
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* Canon expect Sony to massively undercut the 1Ds Mk3 with their 25MP model(s?) which would put pressure on Canon if they stuck to 12 or 16MP FF for the 5D replacement. Nikon will also have two more before long, one well above the D3 in price, one between the D700 and D3. One in a D3 like body, the other in a D700 like body. The effective strategy is thus
* - 5D replacement - emphasise low noise
* - High MP FF pro camera, lower cost than 1Ds Mk3 [Yay, the 3D at last! -KC]
* - 1Ds Mk3 upgrade (sooner than the 2010 '3 year' cycle) ~38MP with 50D pixels - meantime, expect significant 1Ds Mk3 price cuts.
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* The new sensor design for the 50D has elements of the '50MP Demo' chip that everyone keeps mentioning, as will the 5D replacement. These two sensors are regarded as more of a step in performance than many previous changes. In particular, with the new 50D sensor, many of Canons primes (and some L zooms) will show the benefit of the high pixel density (38MP FF equiv).
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* Equally well, a FF sensor at this density will show up a lot of their lenses, so they have put a lot of resources into making sure that when the next 'flagship' camera debuts at ~35MP it will have more improved glass. The Nikon 12-24 was a bit more of a wake-up call and with the 24-70 was enough of a reason to switch for some of Canon's pro customers. New aspheric designs and exotic glasses take a lot of computer power and very specialised software.
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* For press use, expect HD video, since Digic IV has the processing power to handle this and the bigger sensor pixel counts. Expect it to debut in some form in the next consumer DSLR (500D). Part of the big AF redesign is addressing the problem of how to provide responsive tracking AF at a performance level suitable for sports use.
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**** The 1D3 AF saga has deeply embarassed Canon, who are in the midst of a complete AF redesign from the 1 series down - this design team has been given considerable authority and resources. AF based on the new designs was specifically left out until next year's models (early 2009)
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* Sony are making no secret of their desire to go to 45-50MP within a few years. Sony's ability to compete price wise anywhere they choose worries Canon more than a revitalised Nikon. Despite their Zeiss lens pedigree, the threat is seen more in the prosumer range where the Sony brand is known. Despite their feeling that lens based IS is superior, Canon know that the in body IS of Sony is being used as an effective marketing tool.
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* Nikon have been agressively marketing towards pro photographers of late and their perceived weakness in prime lenses will not last.

Z NL

**** - cuda panie cuda po 2009 premierach aż strach się bać co będzie na a właściwie po żytniej