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Geoff Costello/z forum FM/
Re: 'Un-Official' pre-PMA Rumor Thread
Hi,
I posted on this topic in August 2007 way back in the old Photokina Rumour thread. My ‘source” has just come back from one of his regular business trips to Japan (days ago) where he again met his old colleague buddy now involved in DSLR marketing at Canon at their favourite Sushi bar…
Summarising the previous post Canon was going to replace all their DSLR range in 2007 except for the 400D. There would be:
30D Replacement (40D?) with
• Anti-dust
• 5D like AF
• 10.2mp 4 channel sensor (though they were testing a 12 mp one)
• Still 1.6 crop for those EF-S lenses
• DIGIC III and sensor changes to give better high ISO and lower noise (especially at 1600 and 3200 ISO)
• Very similar appearance to 30D
5D would be split into FF two lines to create full frame demand
• Low end – similar to current 12 Mp sensor but with a more 30D like body (could be a 7D?) and DIGIC III. This low end and xxD series were meant to provide a more cost effective choice between 1.6 and FF for the advance amateur and allow a gradual migration to more full frame over time driven by the market.
• High end with more MP (16mp but not the 1D sensor), improved AF for the full frame, DIGIC III etc. (could be a 3D?)
The 1 Series was being replaced as well
• Canon were very excited by this replacement
• A different division markets these to the normal DSLRs so details were more sketchy (DIGIC III and much better ISO and dynamic range mentioned)
• There had been some late changes which back then (August 2006) were risking the 1 series not making Photokina.
• Canon were working on two new 1 series abut would probably only release one of them for now.
History shows that the 1 series replacment was not announced at Photokina. So that leaves a lot of cameras for 2007
Anyway, according to my “source” this is all still true and Canon is ready to produce these cameras (technology finalised). Indeed 1 series samples are apparently out there (Jeff / Fred?). But the 1 series delay has meant that they need to select what to announce at the PMA – they don’t want to announce all 4 cameras as the dealer channels would complain (too much change / obsolete product at once.) Canon’s thinking (as far as my sources contact was ‘on the inside” was to announce 2 cameras at PMA and 2 later in the year.
This is where it gets interesting - the dilemma for Canon here is:
• The 1 series should be announced first for pride / reputation with the new features
• Even though the 1 series sells in very limited quantities, the professional camera division in Canon has a lot of clout - seen as creating a brand image leadership in the whole camera space.
• The 30D replacement is badly required as the 20D/30D’s combined market share has dropped radically over the last few months due to a combination of internal competition from the 400D and the market impact of the Nikon D80 and Sony A100 etc.
• The 30D series segment is seen as important to Canon because of lens on-sell. This market and upwards tends to buy extra lenses, including high value lenses (I interpret that to be “high profit”).
• The two 5D replacements make the most sense if sold together. Though they could announce the high end one first (as a 5D replacment) and then follow with the low end (entry level FF). The low end 5D repalcement is thought too similar to the 5D to be released while the 5D is in the market.
• The 5D has not sold as well as hoped in most markets except when rebates are offered. However Canon still sell lots more of them that the 1 series and they are nicely profitable. They also have excellent resell on high value lenses.
• The combination of Nikon's aggressive D40 / D80 / D200 range, with the Sony A100 is taking more DSLR market share than Canon predicted. The 400D is selling very well but Canon know they need to regain more of the midrange DLR market quickly to maintain the lens sales and ‘own’ the system for the advanced amateur and semi-pro etc.
• Sony is known to be working on CMOS sensors at 1.6 and FF for their DSLR range and are expected to continue to complete aggressively on features. (Interesting to see what this does for Nikon who currently buy their CCD sensor from Sony) (Also interesting to see no mention of Pentax, which seems stange..).
• Hence the big dilemma – 30D replacement and 1 series replacement now or 30D and one of the 5D replacements now and leave the other 5D and 1 series for later. Or do they upset their channels (never a good idea) and issue 3 cammeras to give the market at knockout puch. In terms of revenue and immediate market share protection delaying the 1 series further makes sense. But the new high end 5D replacement to very close to the 1 series performance (16mp etc), and in terms of prestige, the 1 series should be the best… (Note, no mention of delaying the 30D replacement so I guess that is a given?)
Apparently the internal discussions at Canon have been “very vigorous”. As far as my “source’s” contact was concerned it was 99% likely to be the 1 series and 30D replacement for PMA, the 5D replacements being left to later this year and potentially even split into 2 years.
Anyway – still a grain of salt needed – these are Sushi and Saki conversations in Japan and my “source’s” colleague buddy may be boasting / trying to impress etc… But it makes some sense..
Interesting that there is no mention of a Nikon D40 competitor… Maybe too soon for Canon to react…. Regardless it would seem that the free market is working with Nikon and Sony likely to force a faster pace out of Canon than we have had over the last few years where they have dominated the DSLR market. This can only be good!
More fuel for the fire…
(Oh and after Photokina I bought a new 5D as I felt that 6+ months of great photos with a fantastic camera was better than waiting and waiting for rumours and promises. And I haven’t regretted this for 1 second! After whatever actually is announced and released comes on sale the 5D will be just as good…)
Geoff
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